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Зачем Европе нужен дорогой СПГ из США

СПГ-танкер

Наталья Карнова. Еврокомиссия ожидает роста поставок сжиженного природного газа (СПГ) из США в ближайшие годы. По словам главы директората ЕК по энергетике Доминика Ристори, Европа надеется на увеличение доли СПГ, в том числе, из США для диверсификации своего энергоснабжения.

Он напомнил, что первый груз с СПГ из США пришёл в Евросоюз лишь в 2016 году. С тех пор поставки увеличивались. Согласно материалам Еврокомиссии, только в третьем квартале прошлого года 12 грузов с американским СПГ прибыло в разные страны ЕС.

Импорт СПГ Евросоюзом в третьем квартале прошлого года сократился на 8% в годовом исчислении. Крупнейшим поставщикам этого вида топлива остался Катар, доля США составила лишь 3%. Квартальный объем СПГ, привезенного из США, снизился на 56% по сравнению с тем же периодом 2017 года и представлял собой лишь 7% общего экспорта Соединенными Штатами сжиженного газа за соответствующий триместр 2018 года. Основные поставки США шли в Латинскую Америку (48%) и Азию (44%).

Если же смотреть данные по газу в целом, то в третьем квартале прошлого года импорт снизился на 3% в годовом исчислении на фоне снижения потребления и производства. Несмотря на это, счет за импорт газа вырос на треть, до 23 млрд евро. Это связано с увеличением цен в третьем квартале.

АЗИЯ ДИКТУЕТ ЦЕНЫ

Все дело в том, что почти весь прошлый год цены на газ в Азии были гораздо выше, чем в Европе, и служили ориентиром для экспортных потоков из США. Европейские расценки на этом фоне тоже росли, хотя и не дотягивали до азиатских, уверены опрошенные «Прайм» эксперты.

Зимой соотношение изменилось, отметил ведущий аналитик Фонда национальной энергобезопасности Игорь Юшков.

«Прежде весь свободный объем шел в Азию, и даже то, что попадало по долгосрочным контрактам в Европу, прямо в портах перегружалось в танкеры и направлялось в Азию», — отметил он.

Китай, стремясь перейти с угля на газ, наращивал закупки, диктуя тем самым это ценовое соотношение. Однако теперь страна снизила объемы, поскольку дополнительный газ в хранилищах ей больше не нужен. Как следствие, СПГ в Азии подешевел, и на фоне паритета Европе стало доставаться больше.

В результате европейский импорт СПГ в зимний период вырос и составляет порядка 3,5 млрд кубов в месяц вместо 0,7 млрд кубов в январе-ноябре 2018 года. Даже если доля США выросла, то это имеет не политические, а экономические мотивы – их газ просто подешевел в этом отрезке времени.

ВСЕ ВО ИМЯ ДИВЕРСИФИКАЦИИ

Эксперты напоминают, что Европа является вторым в мире потребителем газа после США и его нетто-импортером. Вкупе с понятным стремлением диверсифицировать источники энергоносителей это подразумевает возможность дальнейшего увеличения импорта СПГ, в том числе, из США, отметил ведущий аналитик ИФ «Олма» Антон Старцев.

Однако за исключением стран Балтии и Польши, пытающихся за счет закупки нескольких танкеров с СПГ в США продемонстрировать свою лояльность, большая часть игроков продолжает руководствоваться экономическими соображениями.

При необходимости они будут покупать СПГ дешевле у других поставщиков – Катара, Норвегии, Алжира. «Поставки СПГ из США не будут иметь значительный объем из-за их дороговизны. Они просто дают Европе «резервный» канал для диверсификации поставок, что вполне логично в текущей политической ситуации», — считает директор Центра экономических исследований Университета «Синергия» Андрей Коптелов.

По его мнению, поддержание действующего канала поставок СПГ в Европу будет политически обосновано, даже в случае, если газ, поставляемый по этому каналу, будет дороже газа, поставляемого по газопроводу. «Покупая СПГ в других странах, Европа не допустит монополизации на рынке энергоносителей», — уверен он.

НЕТ ПОВОДА ДЛЯ ОПАСЕНИЙ

Экономика Европы находится в устойчивом состоянии, невзирая на некоторое замедление, констатируют эксперты. Поэтому, несмотря на использование альтернативных источников энергии, потребность европейских потребителей в «голубом топливе» лишь увеличится.

Цена на газ в Европе будет испытывать давление нефтяных цен и сезонных факторов, но в целом кардинальных изменений не прогнозируется, считает Коптелов.

В свою очередь, Юшков напомнил, что собственная добыча газа в ЕС снижается. В 2017-2018 годах Голландия и Дания перестали быть экспортерами и стали импортерами. Поставки из Алжира сократились на фоне снижения добычи в этой стране.

В этой ситуации российские поставки пока остаются вне конкуренции, уверены эксперты.

«Бесспорно, альтернативу нашим объемам можно найти – мощности по производству СПГ наращивают и США, и Австралия. Другое дело, что цена у них продолжит оставаться существенно выше. Таким образом, трубопроводные поставки из РФ пока вне конкуренции по соотношению «цена-качество», — говорит Юшков.

Старцев напомнил, что в 2017 году (данных за 2018 год пока нет) страны ЕС импортировали 55 млрд кубометров СПГ в пересчете на газовый эквивалент, в то время как «Газпром» за тот же период поставил в Европу 194 млрд кубометров газа.

«В ближайшие несколько лет европейский газовый рынок может стать более конкурентным, но пока многие из стран Европы зависимы от поставок из РФ. Рост сегмента СПГ также предполагает возможность увеличения импорта Европой российского газа, например, с проекта Ямал-СПГ «, — указал эксперт.

В пользу этого утверждения свидетельствуют данные Минэнерго о росте экспорта газа из РФ. В 2018 году он вырос на 20 млрд кубометров по сравнению с 2017 годом — до 225 миллиардов кубометров. При этом поставки трубопроводного газа увеличились на 4,1%, а СПГ — на 70%.

Источник

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